12/17/2022 0 Comments Microsoft detours 1.5(2021) focuses on different outcomes for and implementations of the Paris Agreement, while Fæhn and Yonezawa (2021) analyses the robustness of Norway's climate policy goals under different forms of Norway-EU cooperation on climate policy. To investigate the vulnerability of Norway's possible climate strategies, we study them within various global regimes. The effects of Norwegian policy and action depend on the global development. The work is submitted to Environmental and Resource Economics and available as an SSB DP.Ī key issue in SMART PATHS is how robust possible Norwegian climate strategies towards 2050 will be. (2021b), models inertia in the replacement of the car fleet in Norway and looks at the use of instruments to accelerate the transition. In particular, the topic of habit formation has previously only been scarcely addressed within a dynamic macroeconomic framework. In the three above-mentioned studies of climate strategies in the shorter and longer term, we have developed macroeconomic, dynamic models in which we explicitly model slow investment and restructuring processes. Both works show that early and vigorous policy is required to bring about change when behavioural changes are hampered. Theoretical results are illustrated with examples from investments in renewable energy and from dietary habits. Storrøsten (2020 2021), in Environmental and Resource Economics and in an SSB DP, respectively, study implications of such inertia. The risk with a short-term focus is that society may lock itself into patterns with high emissions. Then, new wind installations can supply the remaining petroleum industry with power and gradually take over offshore activity and secure sustainable jobs, value added and government revenues.īoth technological and behavioural changes take time and effort. However, this strategy is more expensive in a longer perspective, both financially and socio-economically, than postponing some of the emission cuts until investments in offshore wind are operative. The analysis shows that electrification from land and gradual downsizing of the business result in medium-term emission reductions. (2021), an SSB DP submitted to Energy Policy, studies emission reductions in the Norwegian offshore industry. SMART PATHS has investigated whether the danger of lock-in, and costly detours as a result, is present for the Norwegian economy. Measures to meet medium-term climate policy goals can displace more comprehensive and costly transformation measures with larger future mitigation potential but without immediate emission effects. One hypothesis is that setting emission targets along the way could lead to a detour. The aim of SMART PATHS has been to distinguish smart paths from costly detours. Norway can choose different routes to the low-emission society.
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